Crunch Time for Middle Powers

Well, we're in a multipolar world now, and the conflict has only just begun...

Last week we highlighted China’s commitment to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: events continue to unfold. The United States has started to pressure Japan and Australia for explicit declarations of support for Taiwan, while Chinese naval vessels are now trying to establish a presence off the coast of Hawaii. India has launched drone strikes at an insurgent group in Myanmar, showing that the ambiguity of the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific is blurring the lines of geopolitical norms.

Hegemon vs Hegemon

It’s becoming evident that China’s previous assessment of US support to Ukraine is key to Ukrainian defence is accurate. While the European Union and European states in NATO are now trying to rearm and rebuild weapons manufacturing, French President Emmanuel Macron’s latest increase in spending suggests continuing misalignment between different countries. And even if such rearmament is successful, there will likely be ongoing deliberation how much of that aid is sent to Ukraine, given…